While COVID-19 hospitalizations are declining from their the peak levels reached about a month ago, Oregon hospitals across the state are likely to remain full of COVID-19 patients well into December, according to an updated forecast from Oregon Health & Science University released Sept. 30.
A total of 792 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Oregon as of Friday, according to the Oregon Health Authority. While hospitalizations have declined from their peak of 1,178 reached Sept. 1, there are still many more people hospitalized with COVID-19 in the state now than there were during the previous peak last winter when 584 people were hospitalized.
While hospitalizations reman elevated, Peter Graven, an OHSU researcher who has been modeling expected coronavirus hospitalization numbers since the pandemic started, said he has seen a decline in Oregonians taking some precautions to protect against COVID-19.
“We’re in a moment right now where we’re going to see what happens as fatigue sets in,” Graven said in a statement.
On Aug. 24, as Oregon COVID hospitalizations were reaching record levels, Gov. Kate Brown extended Oregon’s mask mandateto require Oregonians to wear masks in outdoor settings where social distancing isn’t possible. The mandate went into effect Aug. 27. Masks are also required in all indoor spaces.
Even though the mandate remains in effect, Graven’s most recent forecast shows that Oregonians reduced their estimated use of masks from 84 percent to 81 percent during the last week of September. Oregonians also showed a slight increase in the frequency of indoor gatherings at bars or restaurants, Graven’s forecast shows.
Signs that Oregonians are growing tired of safety restrictions intended to slow the spread of the highly contagious delta variant could pose a threat to the trend of declining cases and hospitalizations, particularly in areas of the state where vaccination rates remain low.
Oregon hospitals are still seeing high numbers of COVID-19 cases, and patients in intensive care units, putting intense demand on medical resources, which has caused other types of care to be postponed, including non-urgent surgeries.
“We know there is a lot of patient care that isn’t able to happen right now,” Graven said. “Many cases are still being postponed and delayed because health systems don’t have room or staffing to do it.”
-- Kristi Turnquist
kturnquist@oregonian.com 503-221-8227 @Kristiturnquist
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