CLEVELAND, Ohio - Fifty-one Ohio counties remain on red alert for concern of coronavirus spread, the state announced Thursday, as the case rate overall in Ohio has been increasing this spring after a sharp decline through most of the winter.
There were 167.1 known new cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks, up from the rate of 146.9 per 100,000 reported a week ago, and moving away from Gov. Mike DeWine’s stated goal of 50 before he will lift his health orders that range from mandated masks in public to limited crowds at entertainment venues.
The rate is based on when people noticed symptoms, not when their cases were reported by the state, which could be days or weeks later. And it excludes incarcerated individuals.
“We have in fact seen an increase in COVID-19 activity in Ohio that mirrors what we have seen nationally,” said Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, chief medical officer for the Ohio Department of Health, noting that new strains of the virus have accounted for 80% of Ohio’s new cases. “Here in Ohio variant activity continues to rise.”
Vanderhoff noted a sharper increase in new cases along the northern border with Michigan, which has encountered one the nation’s sharpest increases.
“What we have to do is stay on defense by wearing a mask,” DeWine said. “The other thing is the vaccinations.”
The state reported close to 3.5 million Ohioans have received at least their first dose, with all doses completed for about 2 million.
“This is a race,” DeWine said in encouraging people to get vaccinated. “We cannot vaccinate fast enough.”
But while the case rate statewide has increased, the number of counties on red alert has declined. A week ago 55 counties were listed on red alert in the state’s coronavirus advisory system. This compared with 66, 76, 80 and 84 red alert counties the previous four weeks.
Among the red counties are Cuyahoga and each of the six adjacent counties in Greater Cleveland.
Level 3 red alert, according to the health department, means there remains a public emergency for increased exposure and spread, and that people should “exercise a high degree of caution.” The alert system takes into account more than just new case rates, but also trends in hospitalizations, doctor visits and emergency room visits related to COVID-19.
But for the last several weeks the focus has moved away from the alert map and to the Thursday updates for new cases over the previous two weeks. This is because DeWine on March 4 announced he would condition removal of his health orders to the rate dropping to 50 cases per 100,000.
At the time of his announcement, rates were going down sharply. But they have reversed. The last two updates to the rate, reported each Thursday, mark the only week-to-week increases this year.
Ohio was last below 50 per 100,000 in June. The rate was a record high of 845.5 in mid-December.
Ohio's coronavirus case rate per 100,000 residents, excluding incarcerated individuals, as reported by the Ohio Department of Health. The latest report released on Thursday, April 1, was based on data available through Wednesday, March 31.Rich Exner, cleveland.com
Level 2 orange alert (32 counties): Adams, Allen, Ashtabula, Auglaize, Brown, Columbiana, Coshocton, Darke, Fayette, Fulton, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Hocking, Jackson, Knox, Lawrence, Logan, Meigs, Monroe, Morrow, Noble, Paulding, Preble, Putnam, Scioto, Shelby, Tuscarawas, Van Wert, Vinton, Wayne and Williams.
Level 1 yellow alert (5): Carroll, Clinton, Holmes, Mercer and Morgan.
Case rates by county range from 18.2 per 100,000 in Holmes County to 317 per 100,000 in Clark County. Just four counties are below the target rate of 50 per 100,000 - Homes, Mercer (36.4), Morgan (41.4) and Carroll (44.6).
In Greater Cleveland, the case rate is highest in Summit County:
* Cuyahoga: 194.3 per 100,000 this week versus 167, 162 and 190.6 in the updates each of the previous three weeks.
* Geauga: 123.9 versus 106.8, 122.8 and 147.4 the last three weeks.
* Lake: 136.9 versus, 126, 149.5 and 160.8.
* Lorain: 198.8 versus 148.5, 143 and 159.1.
* Medina County: 178 versus 190.8, 206.4 and 189.7.
* Portage County: 211.1 versus 186.5, 164.3 and 155.7.
* Summit County: 267.3 versus 219, 203.7 and 184.3.
The advisory system
Here’s a closer look at the advisory system introduced in early July. Alert levels are determined by the number of warning benchmarks met. But once a county reaches red alert, it does not drop unless its rate of new cases also drops below 100 per 100,000 over two weeks.
* 1. New cases - Alert triggered when there are 50 new cases per cases 100,000 residents over the last two weeks.
* 2. Increase in new cases - Alert triggered by an increase in cases for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the date of onset of symptoms, not when the cases are reported.
* 3. Non-congregate living cases - Alert triggered when at least 50% of the new cases in one of the last three weeks have occurred in outside congregate living spaces such as nursing homes and prisons.
* 4. Emergency rooms - Alert triggered when there is an increase in visits for COVID-like symptoms or a diagnosis for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 5. Doctor visits - Alert triggered when there is an increase in out-patient visits resulting in confirmed cases or suspected diagnosis for COVID-19 for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 6. Hospitalizations - Alert triggered when there is an increase in new COVID-19 patients for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the county or residence, not the location of the hospital.
* 7. Intensive Care Unit occupancy - Alert triggered when ICU occupancy in a region exceeds 80% of total ICU beds and at least 20% of the beds are being used for coronavirus patients for at least three days in the last week.
Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. See other data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral.
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