CLEVELAND, Ohio - Ohio’s progress toward meeting Gov. Mike DeWine’s stated goal before he will lift health orders ranging from mask mandates to restaurant seating stopped this week, with the rate for new cases going up for the first time since mid-January.
Meanwhile, 55 counties remain on red alert for concern over coronavirus spread, the Ohio Department of Health reported Thursday. This compares with 66, 76, 80 and 84 red alert counties the previous four weeks.
Level 3 red alert, according to the health department, means there remains a public emergency for increased exposure and spread, and that people should “exercise a high degree of caution.”
But for the last several weeks the focus has moved away from the alert map and to the Thursday updates for new cases over the last two weeks. This is because DeWine on March 4 announced he would condition removal of his health orders to the rate dropping to 50 cases per 100,000.
Ohio reported a rate of 146.9 cases per 100,000 on Thursday, up from 143.8 per 100,000 a week ago.
This marked the first increase since Jan. 13. The rate was 155 per 100,000 two weeks ago and 178.5 three weeks ago as DeWine made his announcement.
Ohio was last below 50 per 100,000 in June. The rate was a record high of 845.5 in mid-December.
Gov. DeWine described this week’s rate as “still very high. ... We have to continue to work on this. It’s the defense of wearing the mask. It’s the offense on vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate.”
Case rates in 52 of the 88 counties increased, DeWine said.
This case rate is based on cases for which symptoms began in the last two weeks, not when the state reported the cases. Cases involving incarcerated individual are not included in the calculations. Thursday’s update covers the period of March 10 through Tuesday.
Cuyahoga and most other counties in Northeast Ohio are among the 55 counties statewide on red alert, a higher level of concern than orange and yellow alert. Here are the orange and yellow counties.
Level 2 orange alert (31 counties): Adams, Allen, Ashtabula, Brown, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Darke, Fayette, Fulton, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Hocking, Jackson, Knox, Lawrence, Logan, Meigs, Mercer, Monroe, Morgan, Morrow, Noble, Preble, Putnam, Shelby, Tuscarawas, Vinton, Wayne and Williams.
Level 1 yellow alert (2): Holmes and Van Wert.
The rates by county according to Thursday’s update for the last two weeks through Tuesday ranged from a high of 253.6 cases per 100,000 in Clark County to a low of 38.9 cases per 100,000 in Van Wert Couinty. Van Wert and Holmes (43.2) are the only counties below 50 per 100,000.
In Greater Cleveland:
* Cuyahoga: 167 per 100,000, up from 162 last week. Cuyahoga’s rate two weeks ago was 190.6.
* Geauga: 106.8, down from 122.8 and 147.4 the last two weeks.
* Lake: 126, down from 149.5 and 160.8 the last two weeks.
* Lorain: 148.5, up from 143 last week. The rate two weeks ago was 159.1.
* Medina County: 190.8, down from 206.4 last week. The rate two weeks ago was 189.7.
* Portage County: 186.5, up from 164.3 and 155.7 the last two weeks.
* Summit County: 219, up from 203.7 and 184.3 the last two weeks.
Coronavirus case rates by county in Ohio, based on the number of cases with an onset of symptoms in the last two weeks.Ohio Department of Health
The advisory system
Here’s a closer look at the advisory system introduced in early July. Alert levels are determined by the number of warning benchmarks met. But once a county reaches red alert, it does not drop unless its rate of new cases also drops below 100 per 100,000 over two weeks.
* 1. New cases - Alert triggered when there are 50 new cases per cases 100,000 residents over the last two weeks.
* 2. Increase in new cases - Alert triggered by an increase in cases for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the date of onset of symptoms, not when the cases are reported.
* 3. Non-congregate living cases - Alert triggered when at least 50% of the new cases in one of the last three weeks have occurred in outside congregate living spaces such as nursing homes and prisons.
* 4. Emergency rooms - Alert triggered when there is an increase in visits for COVID-like symptoms or a diagnosis for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 5. Doctor visits - Alert triggered when there is an increase in out-patient visits resulting in confirmed cases or suspected diagnosis for COVID-19 for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 6. Hospitalizations - Alert triggered when there is an increase in new COVID-19 patients for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the county or residence, not the location of the hospital.
* 7. Intensive Care Unit occupancy - Alert triggered when ICU occupancy in a region exceeds 80% of total ICU beds and at least 20% of the beds are being used for coronavirus patients for at least three days in the last week.
Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. See other data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral.
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