Saturday, January 8, 2022
Thursday, January 6, 2022
Opinion | The Economic Case for Goldilocks - The New York Times
For the U.S. economy, 2021 was both the best of times and the worst of times — well, maybe not that bad, but still.
The good news: Unemployment plunged thanks to rapid growth and job creation, falling as fast as it did during the “morning in America” recovery of the early 1980s.
The bad news: Inflation hit its highest level in decades. So economists who warned early last year about inflation were right, while those of us who downplayed the risk or predicted only a brief interlude of rising prices were wrong.
There are, however, two questions about the mix of good and bad news that people should be asking, but for the most part, at least as far as I can tell, aren’t. Could we have had substantially lower inflation without a much worse job picture? And, if not, would accepting a slower employment recovery in return for less inflation have been a good idea? I’m a definite no on the first question, and a probable although not completely certain no on the second.
If I’m right on both counts, however, a surprising conclusion follows: Economic policy in 2021 was actually pretty good. In fact, given the dislocations associated with a continuing pandemic, we ran what was in effect a Goldilocks economy, one that was neither too cold nor too hot.
I can already hear the screaming, but bear with me for a bit.
Let’s start with what should be an unobjectionable point: The Covid-era recovery has been very unbalanced. Fear of infection has limited demand for in-person services like restaurant meals, and people have compensated by buying physical goods like cars and household appliances. Real purchases of consumer durables are still running more than 20 percent above the prepandemic level, while purchases of services have only recently returned to their level of two years ago.
And supply chains have had a hard time keeping up with surging goods purchases.
Econ 101 tells us what should happen in the face of skewed demand and constrained supply: The prices of the things people are scrambling to buy should rise relative to the prices of things people are still shunning. Sure enough, the ratio of the price index for durable goods to that for services has risen substantially, reversing its normal technology-driven downward trend.
This relative inflation in the prices of goods as compared with services was unavoidable if we didn’t want to experience crippling shortages — which we did, in fact, avoid: some consumer items have been hard to get, but predictions of a holiday-season “shipageddon” didn’t come true.
But we could have had lower overall inflation if we had squeezed service prices — say, by slashing aid to families or raising interest rates, and thereby restraining private spending — instead of doing what we did, which was to make the whole adjustment via higher goods prices. Would that have been a better path?
Well, I don’t see any way we could have squeezed service prices without also squeezing service-sector employment. That is, unless policymakers have access to some magic wand I haven’t heard about, we could have kept 2021 inflation down only at the cost of a substantially slower jobs recovery.
And that would have been a bad thing. High unemployment isn’t just harmful when it’s happening; it also has destructive long-term effects, because the evidence says that young people starting their work lives amid economic weakness suffer persistent damage to their earnings.
So holding back the recovery would have been a serious mistake if — and it’s a big if — the inflation spike of 2021 doesn’t turn into a wage-price spiral, and we can eventually get inflation back down without having to go through a serious recession. Not to put too fine a point on it, it would have been a tragedy if hundreds of thousands of currently employed Americans had been denied jobs merely in order to reduce congestion at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
So can we unwind inflation fairly gracefully? The Fed thinks we can. So do most independent forecasters. So do I, although of course we could all be wrong.
And for those following the financial news, no, indications from the just-released Fed minutes that officials are concerned about inflation and expect to raise interest rates this year aren’t an admission that they were wrong to keep rates low last year. When I’m merging with highway traffic, I keep my foot on the gas pedal while accelerating then let up once I’ve reached cruising speed. What do you do?
As I suggested earlier, I expect many people to be very upset at any suggestion that economic policymakers have done a pretty good job lately. Before you start ranting about inflation, however, ask yourself what you would have done differently and whether your alternative policies would have been consistent with the very good news we’ve had on jobs.
I’m not saying that we should ignore inflation. The Fed is right to be considering interest rate hikes now that the economy appears to be getting close to capacity. But accepting inflation for a while was probably the right call.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.
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European court declines to take pro-gay marriage cake case - ABC News
A top European court has declined to rule in a discrimination case centered on an activist’s request to have a cake decorated with the “Sesame Street” characters Bert and Ernie and the words “Support Gay Marriage.”
LONDON -- A top European court declined Thursday to rule in a high-profile discrimination case centered on an activist's request to have a cake decorated with the “Sesame Street” characters Bert and Ernie and the words “Support Gay Marriage.”
The European Court of Human Rights said the case was inadmissible because activist Gareth Lee had failed to “exhaust domestic remedies” in his case against a Northern Ireland bakery.
It was the latest ruling in a long-running legal battle that began in 2014 when Ashers Baking Co. refused to make the cake Lee wanted.
The owners argued they were happy to bake goods for anyone but would not put messages on their products at odds with their Christian beliefs.
Lee said he was frustrated the case was thrown out on what he called “a technicality” and said that freedom of expression “must equally apply to lesbian, gay, bisexual and trans people.”
He originally ordered the cake to support a campaign to allow same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland. The campaign succeeded when Britain’s Parliament stepped in to bring the region into line with the rest of the country. Two women who tied the knot in February 2020 became the first gay couple to wed in Northern Ireland.
Britain’s Supreme Court ruled in 2018 that the bakery's refusal to make the cake Lee ordered did not amount to discrimination, reversing a lower court’s ruling.
Lee then took his case to the Strasbourg, France-based human rights court, arguing that the U.K. Supreme Court decision breached the European Convention on Human Rights.
In a written ruling, the rights court said it could not rule because Lee had not raised the convention in his U.K. court actions.
“Because he had failed to exhaust domestic remedies, the application was inadmissible," the Court of Human Rights said.
LGBTQ support group the Rainbow Project called the ruling disappointing.
“When a commercial business is providing services to the public, they cannot discriminate against their customers or clients on any grounds protected by equality law," John O’Doherty, the group's director, said.
He said the 2018 U.K. Supreme Court ruling created legal uncertainty throughout the country.
“Unfortunately, with today’s decision, that uncertainty will remain,” he said.
The Christian Institute, which had backed the legal fight of the McArthur family that runs Ashers Baking Co., welcomed the ruling, which a spokesman called “good news for free speech, good news for Christians, and good news for the McArthurs.”
“The UK Supreme Court engaged at length with the human rights arguments in this case and upheld the McArthurs’ rights to freedom of expression and religion," spokesman Simon Calvert said."
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Blaine County's COVID-19 case rate soars to new highs - Idaho Mountain Express and Guide
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Wednesday, January 5, 2022
What Prince Andrew's Abuse Case Could Mean for the Royal Family - The New York Times
As Queen Elizabeth II prepares to mark 70 years on the throne this year, a sexual abuse case in a Manhattan court involving her son could mean more turmoil for the royal family.
LONDON — Queen Elizabeth II will mark 70 years on the throne in February, a milestone unmatched by any British sovereign and a chance to turn the page on three years of ceaseless turmoil in the royal family. But a sexual-abuse lawsuit unfolding in a Manhattan courtroom could yet spoil her celebration.
On Tuesday, lawyers for the queen’s second son, Prince Andrew, asked a federal judge to throw out a lawsuit by Virginia Roberts Giuffre, in which she claims that Andrew, a friend of the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, raped her when she was 17.
It was the latest in a skein of legal maneuvers by the prince’s lawyers to defuse Ms. Giuffre’s case. While the judge, Lewis A. Kaplan, did not immediately rule on the motion, leaving Andrew’s legal fate unsettled for now, the hearing dramatized the shadow that the 61-year-old prince still casts over his family.
If the judge allows the case to go forward, Andrew could face damaging testimony from Ms. Giuffre about his alleged abuse of her at Mr. Epstein’s residences in New York and in the Caribbean. That would plunge the House of Windsor back into scandal at the very moment it hopes to use the Platinum Jubilee to remind Britons of the queen’s extraordinary longevity and largely blemish-free record of service.
The 70-minute hearing gave a glimpse into the kinds of issues that could spill out in a prolonged trial. At one point, Prince Andrew’s lead lawyer, Andrew B. Brettler, argued that Ms. Giuffre had not been specific in her allegations against him. Judge Kaplan replied that she claimed she had been subjected to “involuntary sexual intercourse” and asked what was not clear about that.
“If the case drags on and on and on, yes, it will be a thorn in the side of the Platinum Jubilee,” said Dickie Arbiter, who served as a press secretary to the queen from 1988 to 2000. Beyond the fraught issues raised in that case, he said, were the lingering questions stirred by the rift between the family and Prince Harry and his American-born wife, Meghan.
Harry, the queen’s grandson, plans to publish a memoir late in 2022, which has unsettled people around the royal family who fear further unflattering details about what the estranged prince and Meghan have claimed was callous and racist treatment at the hands of members of the royal family.
Andrew’s woes, by contrast, are largely of his own making, royal watchers point out, the product of his association with the disgraced Mr. Epstein and another friend, Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted last week of conspiring with Mr. Epstein to recruit, groom and abuse underage girls. Ms. Giuffre contends that she was among those victims; Andrew denies her claim that she was trafficked to him.
The queen has already largely banished Andrew from public life, a process that gained momentum after a calamitous interview he gave the BBC in November 2019, in which he tried to explain his friendship with Mr. Epstein and denied the allegations of sexual misconduct, saying he had no memory of meeting Ms. Giuffre. He no longer appears at public events, or even military ceremonies, and the British media’s coverage of him is uniformly scathing.
When photographers capture Andrew’s image — often at the wheel of a car coming or going to visit his mother — he appears a graying, weary shadow of the once-dashing helicopter pilot who beguiled the country with his service in the Falklands War and his busy bachelorhood.
“My gut feeling is that most people have lost interest in him,” said Penny Junor, a royal historian. “He’s arrogant and not particularly popular. Since he’s gone past middle age, there’s been a general sense of ‘what’s he for?’”
In one respect, however, Andrew could remain a lingering problem, Ms. Junor said. The queen has not stripped him of his honorary military titles, some of which he inherited from his father, Prince Philip, who died last year. That has prompted objections from veterans, who say it is unseemly to be under the command of a person facing such allegations.
Julian Perreira, a former sergeant in the Grenadier Guards who served in Afghanistan, told The Times of London last week, “Being allowed to retain his role as colonel of the Grenadier Guards and other military titles, Prince Andrew will put a stain on the regiment’s proud history and will devalue the hard work of past and future generations of Grenadiers. He must step down immediately.”
Prince Harry was stripped of his honorary military titles — as well as the right to use the honorific His Royal Highness — after he and Meghan stepped back from official duties and moved to Southern California.
For Andrew to retain his titles, even while being accused of sexual misconduct, strikes some in Britain as the ultimate illustration of a double standard for privileged members of the royal family. It would be all but impossible to defend if he is found guilty of abusing an underage girl.
Andrew’s reputation, critics say, has not been helped by his legal maneuvering. Rather than confronting the allegations directly, the prince scrambled to avoid being served with legal papers in Britain. His lawyers have tried to get the case dismissed on jurisdictional grounds and, most recently, on the basis of a settlement agreement between Ms. Giuffre and Mr. Epstein.
Under the terms of that 2009 agreement, unsealed on Monday, Mr. Epstein paid Ms. Giuffre $500,000 to resolve a lawsuit in which she accused him of sexually abusing her when she was a teenager. Ms. Giuffre, in turn, agreed to release Mr. Epstein and other “potential defendants” from further litigation, a category that Andrew’s lawyers said included him.
But Ms. Giuffre’s lawyer, David Boies, argued in court that Andrew was not a target of the allegations of sexual trafficking made by Ms. Giuffre in 2009. Hence, he is not protected under the terms of the settlement. “He was someone to whom the girls were trafficked,” Mr. Boies told the judge. “He’s not a potential defendant.”
While Judge Kaplan did not indicate how he was leaning in whether to dismiss the case, he pointedly allowed the process of gathering evidence to continue. That will keep the legal pressure on Andrew. And it will make for a tense start to the Platinum Jubilee year for the queen, who has already been struggling with health problems that have kept her out of public view since October.
The queen, royal watchers note, has been steadfast in her affection for Andrew, even as his public reputation has withered. Having gone along with sidelining her son — a step that was pushed by her eldest son and heir, Prince Charles — some doubt that she would strip Andrew of his titles.
“The queen gives and the queen takes away, but she’d probably be reluctant to take this away because that’s all he got left,” Mr. Arbiter said. “She is the head of state and head of the nation, but at the end of the day, she’s also his mother.”
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Tuesday, January 4, 2022
Summit County issues COVID-19 advisory as case counts smash previous highs - The Park Record
Park Record file photo
The Summit County Health Department issued a formal advisory on Tuesday strongly encouraging people to wear masks and take other precautions through Jan. 31 against COVID-19.
Masking is more important than ever due to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new recommendation shortening quarantine and isolation periods to five days, according to the advisory.
The advisory is a response to the record-breaking transmission of the COVID-19 omicron variant in Utah and the nation, Summit County Health Director Phil Bondurant said.
“There is no question that we are in the grip of omicron,” Bondurant said at a Summit County Board of Health meeting on Monday.
In a Tuesday news release, Bondurant said the county is facing one of the most critical times in the pandemic with its record high numbers of COVID. On Tuesday, Summit County saw 216 confirmed cases, nearly tripling the single-day high prior to the current surge, 79, set in January 2021. Case counts have exceeded 79 nearly every day since Dec. 23.
“While hospitalizations still remain the number one indicator, I implore our residents and visitors to take action to reduce transmission and the impacts of the Omicron variant,” he said in the release. “The winter season is important to Summit County for many reasons and we should all commit to doing what we can to protect those who live in, work and visit Summit County. We will continue to evaluate current trends as we look at the best options to get past this surge.”
Since the pandemic began, there have been 9,166 COVID-19 cases, 248 hospitalizations and 19 deaths in Summit County.
Utah has reported 651,746 COVID-19 cases, 27,723 hospitalizations and 3,804 deaths.
COVID-19 cases surged in the state over the holidays, with 14,754 new cases of coronavirus reported Thursday through Sunday, according to the Utah Department of Health.
Thursday showed the biggest increases during the four-day period, adding 4,659 that day to the statewide tally. Of those cases, 197 were confirmed in Summit County.
The Utah Department of Health reported 4,659 positive COVID cases on Thursday; 3,799 on Friday; 3,267 on Saturday; and 3,123 on Sunday. Of those, 94 were removed from the total count through data quality analysis.
School-age children accounted for 1,764 of the cases — 640 who are ages 5 to 10, 387 ages 11 to 13 and 737 ages 14 to 17.
The department also reported 17 new deaths and said 466 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 statewide. Vaccine doses administered in the four days totaled 23,327.
The county’s health advisory guidelines recommend that people:
• Wear a face mask, regardless of vaccination status, whenever indoors in public. Masks should always cover the nose and mouth, and the advisory notes that higher-quality masks, such as KN95s or KF94s, may offer additional protection.
• Stay home if they are exhibiting any symptoms of illness — regardless of vaccination status or past infection — and get tested for COVID.
• Get vaccinated and (if eligible) boosted.
• Avoid all large gatherings if they are not vaccinated and (if applicable) boosted.
Though Summit County has for months been the most vaccinated area of the state, only 33% of residents have received a booster shot, according to the advisory. Roughly half of children aged 5-11 remain unvaccinated, meanwhile.
“The COVID vaccines are extremely effective at preventing serious illness and death,” the advisory says. “Because vaccine efficacy can wane over time, a booster dose is important to maintain protection.”
The health advisory also suggests following current guidelines on isolation and quarantine.
Utah public health officials say people who test positive for COVID-19 should stay home for five days from the day they were tested, even if they don’t have symptoms or feel sick. They can leave the house if symptoms have improved after five days, but they should wear a mask around other people for five days.
People who are exposed to COVID-19 should get tested five days after the exposure and wear a mask around others, according to the guidelines.
Those 18 and older who have had a booster dose or who had a second dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine within the past six months, or had a Johnson and Johnson vaccine within the past two months don’t need to quarantine after exposure but should wear a mask around others for 10 days. Those same guidelines apply to people younger than 18 who are up to date with vaccinations (meaning they’ve had two doses of the Pfizer vaccine).
“We understand the changing guidelines can be confusing,” Leisha Nolen, state epidemiologist at the Health Department, says in a news release. “Our knowledge of COVID-19, and especially the Omicron variant, changes rapidly. Data continues to show vaccination protects you from severe illness, which means fewer people miss work and school, or are at risk of hospitalization.”
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How strong is DeMar DeRozan’s case for MVP? - Pippen Ain't Easy
DeMar DeRozan has set the NBA ablaze in recent days with his astonishing performance thus far this season, including a pair of back-to-back buzzer-beaters to knock off both the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards. These shots won over the hearts of fans and ultimately helped lift the Chicago Bulls to an Eastern Conference-best 24-10 record.
Due to his strong start, it should come as no surprise that many members of the media are beginning to place DeMar’s name alongside some of the NBA’s best when it comes to the MVP race.
In fact, NBA legend and Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett appears to hold DeRozan’s campaign thus far in high regard, as he placed the Bulls forward second-place in his personal MVP rankings — behind only Steph Curry — with teammate Zach LaVine close behind in third place.
Realistically, it’s highly unlikely that Chicago finishes with two players in the top five for MVP voting. The NBA simply has more talent than ever before and the Bulls star duo would be forced to contend with multiple all-time greats in the prime of their careers.
That being said, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore just how magical DeRozan’s performance has been in Chicago. After the eventual championship-winning trade that sent him to the Spurs in exchange for superstar Kawhi Leonard, the spotlight was taken off of DeRozan and the national media seemed to ignore his accomplishments and growth as a player.
Despite becoming a great facilitator for his young teammates in San Antonio, DeRozan would not receive a single All-Star bid, even after lifting the team to the playoffs in his first year with the Spurs.
The Chicago Bulls have embraced DeMar DeRozan and put him in a position to succeed, but has he done enough to warrant MVP consideration?
Thankfully, that all changed when DeMar DeRozan took his talents to Chicago. Averaging 26.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game through 34 games, DeRozan has been a huge reason why the Bulls have surged to the top of the Eastern Conference after finishing 31-41 last season.
DeRozan leads the Chicago Bulls in points, is second in assists, and is tied for third in rebounds per game. He also leads the team in free throw attempts per game, which has been a huge benefactor to their success considering Chicago ranked dead last as a team in that category last season.
Alongside LaVine, the duo has made for an electric tandem on offense. They are currently combining for 53.1 points per game, a mark not even Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen ever attained as a pairing.
An argument could be made that either DeRozan or LaVine deserve consideration for the award, but what has really set DeMar apart is that he has been the primary offensive option when it matters most.
DeRozan is leading the league in fourth-quarter points per game, with only Giannis Antetokounmpo close behind him. As a narrative-driven award, it’s also difficult to ignore the mental effect that back-to-back game-winning shots would have in the minds of voters.
Additionally, it’s worth looking at how the team has performed when one of the two stars has led the team as the primary scorer.
- Bulls record with DeRozan as the leading scorer: (14-3)
- Bulls record with LaVine as the leading scorer: (9-7)
- Bulls record with someone else as the leading scorer: (1-0)
Granted, this does not mean much from an analytical perspective, but it does help give credence to the idea that voters may potentially see DeRozan as being more responsible for Chicago’s success. In reality, it’s just as likely that LaVine is only forced to take over when the Bulls are losing against tougher competition.
But as the closer for this team, it’s obvious that the team’s record would not be nearly as impressive if not for DeMar’s clutch presence in late-game situations.
According to the NBA’s end of 2021 MVP ladder, DeRozan currently sits in 8th place, with LaVine behind him in 10th. With the Bulls currently on the league’s longest active winning streak and in sole possession of first place in the East, this feels underwhelming, to say the least.
In fact, he has actually fallen down their rankings after a month where the Bulls went 8-0 in games DeRozan was available to play.
He has strong arguments over Rudy Gobert (#5), Chris Paul (#6), James Harden (#7). If DeRozan is being punished for having a great offensive partner, it makes no sense as to why these players would not also suffer from playing alongside Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant, respectively.
Admittedly, the competition becomes much stiffer in the top five, as Giannis, Curry, Nikola Jokic, and Durant are all having incredible seasons in their own right. DeRozan may not be the leading candidate right now, but after the season he’s been having, excluding his name from the conversation entirely just feels wrong. The Bulls are back, and it’s thanks to DeRozan.
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